Toss the polls aside, people are early voting in droves.
As of midday Thursday, 476,000 votes have been reported in battleground Nevada, per King Jon Ralston’s analysis, with Democrats holding only a 1.5% lead statewide.
Chuck Warren, a Republican operative, radio host and the managing director of the September Group, says that’s a flashing red light since Democrats are more inclined to vote early while Republicans hold back until Election Day.
“Those early voting numbers are poor for Democrats,” says Warren. “About half your GOP vote is going to show up on Election Day … So if the Democrats don’t have a high single-digit lead, or low double digits, they’re doomed, they’re done.”
There are still five days of early vote that can still be tabulated, so there’s always the possibility of a Democratic surge, but the early indications don’t look good for incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.
Also in the #pod, we chat about the possibilities of ticket-splitters, whether Sen. Mark Kelly can survive a wave if Kari Lake is cruising in the governor’s race over Katie Hobbs, and if Hobbs could’ve done anything differently as she looks headed to a likely loss in Arizona.
“Kari campaigns with her fist out, punching you in the face…Katie Hobbs is an intellectual lightweight.”
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'Those early voting numbers are poor for Democrats'