The Senate 6: September Rankings

Nothing's truly 50-50. Toss-ups are for babies. Only winners sit here.

Tonight marks 60 days from E-Day, and the path for both parties’ potential Senate majorities are becoming lucid.

Democrats must protect each of their four endangered incumbents while adding Pennsylvania, where they are favored for a pick-up. Taking out Ron Johnson in Wisconsin is feasible — yet demonstrably more difficult — and would mark a banner night for Team Donkey.

Republicans see their inside straight through conversions in Nevada and Georgia, despite glaring suboptimal candidate quality in the Peach State.

In either scenario, neither party will enjoy a margin of more than 2 seats in 2023, but with 2 months to go, the Democratic scenario of +1 (51-49 D) looks to be the most likely outcome.

Read: AUGUST SENATE RANKINGS

Read: JULY SENATE RANKINGS

Read: JUNE SENATE RANKINGS

Here’s September’s #SenateSix >

Analysis, insight and forecasting of the six races most likely to determine Senate control.

Remember as you consume this list that it is ordered beginning with the toughest races to predict (NEVADA) down to those where my certainty of the ultimate outcome is strongest (PENNSYLVANIA).

1. NEVADA

With less attractive options elsewhere, Republicans tell me that it’s Nevada where they will make a full-fledged stand to try and reclaim the U.S. Senate.