The Senate 6: August Rankings

Is Ohio now more competitive than Pennsylvania?

If the 2022 midterm election was held tonight — exactly three months from the actual date of Nov. 8, 2022 — Democrats would add one new seat, lifting their deadlocked majority to 51-49.

That seat would come from Pennsylvania, where there’s ample evidence that John Fetterman is trampling Mehmet Oz in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

There’s not enough evidence to move any other seat firmly into one party’s column in the embers of August, but there’s plenty of action to track in the core contests that will decide party control of the upper chamber.

Remember these monthly lists are ranked in descending order of being the toughest to call — perhaps even #TooCloseToCall — on the night of Nov. 8.

Read: JULY SENATE RANKINGS

Read: JUNE SENATE RANKINGS

Here’s August’s #SenateSix >

1. NEVADA

Of the core four Democratic incumbents facing highly competitive re-elections, Catherine Cortez Masto’s prospects remain the most tenuous, given the unique circumstances of Nevada’s tourism-fueled economy.

“The incumbent Democrats in that state are performing below, for example, where [Mark] Kelly is in Arizona, because of the particular circumstances of what happened where basically, the Las Vegas economy shut down for 18 months because of the lack of tourism. So people really suffered there, I mean, suffered more than most other states,” said Simon Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic consultant who has worked in the West. “There’s unique circumstances there where the Democratic brand is weaker than it is in surrounding areas.”