The Cavernous Cash Gap in Senate Races

Democratic Senate candidates are posting eye-popping advantages even in places you wouldn't expect them to. They must be doomed?

Money isn’t everything.

Incumbents usually raise more of it than their opponents.

And most of these races are still projected to be single-digit nail-biters through the gales of November.

But the striking element to the second quarter fundraising totals in marquee Senate races is the cavernous gap between Democrats and Republicans, even in second-tier contests like Ohio, where J.D. Vance still has to be slightly favored over Tim Ryan.

Right? Right?

David Catanese @davecatanese

Warnock $17.2M … Walker $6.2M Ryan $9.1M … Vance $2.3M Cortez Masto $7.5M … Laxalt $2.8M Incumbents (almost) always raise more money, but it’s the cavernous gaps btw these candidates Q2 $$$ that is eye 👁 catching #GASEN #OHSEN #NVSEN

Mehmet Oz hasn’t reported his fundraising total yet as of mid-day Friday. A post from PAPolitics that included reporting on his numbers has since been removed.

But it’s unlikely he’ll match John Fetterman’s $11 million.

Nonetheless, the Keystone State will remain a single-digit slog; Fetterman is no shoe-in, not this year.

And yes, I take seriously the recent history of Democratic contenders — Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Jaime Harrison — who blew the doors off fundraising walls only to wilt at the ballot box.

Justin @JustR_02

Anyone know how Senator Cunningham (D-NC) is planning to vote on BBB-lite?

David Catanese @davecatanese

Warnock $17.2M … Walker $6.2M Ryan $9.1M … Vance $2.3M Cortez Masto $7.5M … Laxalt $2.8M Incumbents (almost) always raise more money, but it’s the cavernous gaps btw these candidates Q2 $$$ that is eye 👁 catching #GASEN #OHSEN #NVSEN

Michigan Republican 🇺🇲 @Emetselchfam1

Just because Warnock, Ryan and Masto are raising more than their challengers doesn't mean that they are winning. Don't believe me, just ask senators O'Rourke (D-TX), Greenfield (D-IA), McGrath (D-KY), Harrison (D-SC), Cunningham (D-NC), Bullock (D-MT) and Gideon (D-ME)

David Catanese @davecatanese

Warnock $17.2M … Walker $6.2M Ryan $9.1M … Vance $2.3M Cortez Masto $7.5M … Laxalt $2.8M Incumbents (almost) always raise more money, but it’s the cavernous gaps btw these candidates Q2 $$$ that is eye 👁 catching #GASEN #OHSEN #NVSEN

But put aside the Democratic hauls for a moment. With names like Oz, former N.F.L. star Herschel Walker, best-selling author Vance, Nevada legacy Adam Laxalt, Republicans should be seeing more money dropped into their own campaign kettles.

These are not no name contenders. And these aren’t far-flung races in deep red states like Kentucky or South Carolina. They are the entire ballgame of the cycle. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada — these are the states that will likely be decided by tens of thousands of votes.

If the GOP doesn’t recapture the Senate in a year they should, it’ll likely because one or more of these candidates fell just short.

Money might not have made the difference, but it will surely be cited as evidence of their vanquishment.

On the other hand, if these candidates succeed being outspent by tens of millions, they’ll have fortified a new campaign model.

Correction: This post initially included fundraising information from a PoliticsPA post that has since been taken down. Oz had not released his second quarter fundraising numbers as of mid-day Friday.