Kamala's "gonna need a white dude"
Fait accompli, activate Plan B.
The cold reality that Joe Biden’s departure as a 2024 candidate appears fait accompli is a testament to the clinical rapidity of our modern politics.
In hindsight, it was naive to think an assassination attempt — not even a week old — would significantly alter desperate movements already in motion. Especially those organized around stopping Donald J. Trump.
Biden’s candidacy has been untenable for weeks, but his stubbornness and odds-defying success as a politician is decades in the making. This was never going to be easy; it shouldn’t be.
The call remains a difficult one, but the case for a switch holds a more compelling rationale among most sober Democrats, particularly those in power. Biden is on track to lose and lose potentially abominably, bringing down House and Senate candidates with him. Kamala Harris may very well go down too, but she at least there’s a moonshot at a surprise.
Biden can do nothing to reverse being 81. Each public appearance reinforces his diminishment. Harris will make mistakes and could very well spiral, but she could also overperform the basement-level expectations set for her. The underdog storyline is irresistible to the press, though only marginally more than chronicling a death march.
Does it have to be Harris?
Probably, but not unconsciously.
The first test of Harris’ strength would be her ability to lock down Biden’s support and that of the Democratic leaders who pressured her boss out.
As VEEP, she will quickly earn the backing of the acronym-happy interest groups, bold-font activists and rank-and-file elected officials who primarily seek stability and continuity. But there will likely be hold-outs and perhaps even a challenger to her ascension.
If it were an open primary and this was January, no wanna-be Democratic presidential contender would be scared out of the race by Mommala; the difference here is simply time and urgency. Do the Democrats have an ounce more sweat to expend on who should fight Trump as opposed to simply taking a united fight to Trump?
Insiders doubt it; the summer of ‘24 is already too unprecedented.
But be cognizant of dismissing the ~ unlikely ~ in the year of a June general election presidential debate, a near assassination of a former president and an overt campaign to push a president out of his re-election race.
By next week at the time of this writing, it may just be Mommala as nominee to be, and the strongest indication of that is the scheming going on behind the scenes.
Operatives, members of the Democratic National Committee and politicians themselves are lining up their options.
Three governors have already been floated, as my reporting for McClatchy Newspapers outlines.
But as one Democratic operative who has been a part of such conversations said candidly, “She’s gonna need a white dude.”
So, if the swap takes place, get ready to hear about the next generations of MiniBidens to step in for Joe.
Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.
Mark Kelly of Arizona also appears to be in the mix.
Sarah Palin aside, veeps don’t usually matter. They gobble up attention around their selection but they do not gather votes. People look to the top of the ticket as November approaches and the sidekicks are pushed to the wayside.
But with an upheaval as significant as a president’s exodus less than four months from an election, it’d be foolish to write off the impact of … anything.
Could Beshear lure back more Democratic votes in the industrial Midwest?
Would Kelly put Arizona back in play?
First it’s on Harris to prove herself steady enough a candidate to give either the opportunity to do so.
