10 thoughts on the atmospherically volatile, numerically stable presidential race

The assassination attempt. The convention. The operation to bounce Biden.

1. In purely crass and dispassionate political terms, the assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump strengthens Joe Biden’s hold on his party’s nomination and will (at least temporarily) quiet Democratic voices who want to see him withdraw. An upheaval of that magnitude is less likely at a moment of national volatility and anxiety.

2. The Pennsylvania shooting will further solidify the Trump base, but more importantly, crystallize the devotional belief among MAGA diehards that Trump is destined for the White House and cannot be stopped by bullet or ballot. The incident, unintentionally, will stand as a totem for election denialism on the right if Democrats manage to succeed this fall. There are now likely even fewer Republicans who would accept/believe a Biden victory in 2024 than in 2020.

3. There’s a jarring chasm between the perception Biden can win in November (low and dwindling) and the current public polling tracking a margin-of-error race in battleground states (Biden -2). The White House race