Governors make lousy presidential candidates

It's time to burn a persistent political myth hyped by the political universe.

We need a chief executive, they said.

Someone who balances budgets, appoints high-level personnel – not simply casts votes – they said.

A person from outside of Washington, closer to the heartbeat of the people.

They said.

Has a mainstream political hypothesis over the last decade been more erroneous?

It’s past time to dispense with the notion that governors make good presidential candidates. 

There’s far more evidence they’re awful at it: So married to their state’s success they fail to form a broader national vision, so removed from Washington they’re unprepared for the avalanche of sustained media scrutiny, so enamoured with their own record as a small fish, they don’t grasp that most of the rest of the big pond isn’t paying attention to their accomplishments or doesn’t give a fuck about them.

Each cycle, governors are hoisted up as politicians in a league of their own – solving real problems while partisan Washington bickers with nothing to show for it. Political punditry takes the bait, leeching onto a governorship as a prestigious differentiator between the ambitious Senator, member of Congress or vice president in their commentary. Said governors happily regurgitate the recycled trope to debase the work of mere legislating.

“Senators are elected to cast votes. Governors are elected to lead,” Rick Perry said in 2011, just after launching his 2012 White House campaign. “And I think that experience of leading is essential for the presidency."

“We’re better at it,” said Chris Christie at the end of 2014 a few months before he’d launch his 2016 campaign for president. “The American people are done with the experiment of having somebody who’s never run anything before.”

It appears they’re not, governor.

In fact, if the arc of history is any guide –– not having run something in government might be a more attractive quality for Americans increasingly attracted to outsiders and table-shakers who don’t look, sound and operate like politicians.

It feels like Joe Biden will be the last vice president who ascends to POTUS for some time. Before that, we elected Donald Trump and Barack Obama (who beat a governor in ‘12): a pair of outsiders – however opposite in demeanor and substance – in their own right.

Which takes us to the last governor that made it into the Oval Office: George W. Bush.

And does anybody actually believe his governorship was a more important attribute in his White House success than his last name?

It’s at the very least debatable that a non-presidential legacy governor of Texas would have ascended so far, so swiftly.

What’s not debatable is that we haven’t elected a governor president in nearly 20 years. 

And the record of success of governors over the last two decades has been miserable.

The latest example, of course, is Ron DeSantis of Florida, who earned many of the same glowing plaudits as Rick Perry and accrued much of the same hype as Scott Walker.

Like Walker, DeSantis has proven he’s not the politician he looked like on paper. He’s now counting on a sudden Trump collapse or intervention by the legal system to swipe away the nomination. And even in that seismic event, his rebound won’t be due to his charisma, Florida record or dazzling message. 

“It’s a strong contrast to how we do business in Florida,” DeSantis mused after the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, while trailing Trump – who flirted with but smartly passed on a run for New York governor in 2014 – by 31 points in Iowa.

After four months of a largely floundering campaign – where his support has contracted – the actual governing of the nation’s third largest state feels … smaller. 

But when taking the longer lens, it really isn’t DeSantis’ fault. 

His stock was always overpriced.

It’s the media and political ecosystem that creates the hype around governors, with the latest example being Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin. 

“Push for Youngkin 2024 taking shape . . . Red Vest Retreat Oct. 17-18 in VA Beach…Billionaire backer Peterffy assures me ‘money would be there,’ reported Robert Costa last week.  

Sure, Youngkin won a blue state by extinguishing the ultimate slippery Democratic machine player. But there’s zero evidence he’d be any more compelling than DeSantis or Walker other than the addition of red vests to the memesphere. Furthermore, Youngkin wouldn’t save the party from Trump’s steamroll. He’d simply shave a few points off of the voteshares of DeSantis and Nikki Haley, further dividing the field. 

No one is going to concede their fate to Glenn Youngkin. Why would they?

Because he’s a governor (!?)

To be sure, governors’ travails aren’t isolated within the Republican Party.

Democrats haven’t shown any love for them nationally either. And may even be more hostile to chief executives.

The main players in the last competitive Democratic primary featured a string of senators – Biden, Bernie, Warren, Klobuchar – along with the newbie outsider, Buttigieg. Governors like Jay Inslee and Deval Patrick were bit players, specs of dust.

2016 was similar in that Hillary Clinton and Bernie dominated with GOVERNOR Martin O’Malley as an extra. "We need a president who knows how to work with governors to get things done,” O’Malley pitched Iowans. 

Even the third place player in the epic 2008 Obama-Clinton clash was SENATOR John Edwards.

You really need to go back to 2004 to identify the last formidable Democratic governor who had a shot at the White House. His name was Howard Dean. <replays viral scream in head>

But even he only won his home state during that primary campaign.

It’s Clinton, Bill, who was the last Democratic governor (re-) elected to the presidency. Some 27 years ago. 

The proof is plentiful that Democrats love their senators far more than their governors.

Maybe it’s because Democrats admittedly embrace the ethos of federal government and are more invested in the daily goings on in Washington splashed all over their cable chyrons. Klobuchar’s on Maddow(!) fun.

On the GOP side of the ledger, it’s evident governors hold their work in higher esteem than voters do. New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu argues that governors are “best prepared to be president” because they hold the experience of running a state, but leaves out that New Hampshire is the tenth smallest state in the country. Houston, Texas has a million more people than New Hampshire.

"Governors are closer to the people than anybody else in government,” Sununu has said.

Closer than a mayor of a city much larger than New Hampshire? 

Size, it would seem, matters, if you follow his argument through.

Which brings us to the top of the next pile of ambitious governors, Gavin Newsom, a well-coiffed, politically agile talent obviously positioning himself for the presidency – whenever the opening arrives.

Newsom, in my humble estimation, has the best opportunity to break through the icy wall that’s frozen governors out of the White House. But not because he’s the chief executive of America’s most populous state. But because he’s well-prepared in interviews, is already cultivating a message that seeks a vision beyond his California tenure, and seems generally charming and possibly disarming, to even his most vehement skeptics. 

I know this will *trigger* right-leaning readers, but I objectively see Newsom as the strongest messenger the Democratic Party has to offer, defending Biden while effectively placing a fellow governor – DeSantis – on defense. 

He’s also getting his reps in early. Lingering in GOP debate halls for long interviews and sparring with Sean Hannity on Fox. This is the preparatory work that’s necessary four years before his most likely point to launch a presidential bid in 2027. 

It also speaks to the most important characteristic a candidate can hold, which is charisma.

Charisma can land average looking dudes dates with 8s. It can win you a seating at a crowded cocktail bar full of self-important suits. It can push your application further in the job process following an interview brimming with comfortable face-to-face confidence.

And in politics, it’s gold in punching through the attention economy.

Vivek Ramaswamy has it – perhaps too much for some people’s liking. But for at least a few months he was more interesting to listen to and speak with than DeSantis, whose repetitive talking points about Florida left people cold.

It’s obvious that Trump and Obama had it – again, in disparate ways – Obama with his soaring hope and aspiration, Trump with his acidic, unpredictable humor. Biden, whose victory is a special case given the 2020 threat of Trump, still holds a grandfatherly charisma – a way of speaking off-the-cuff and slightly hair-brained that connects with regular dudes, even if it’s mocked by elites and Republicans.  

Newsom looks like he has charisma. He’s smooth, stays calm under fire, and looks like he enjoys the actual game of political combat.

If anything, his record as California’s steward will be the weakest part of his eventual presidential candidacy. 

Yes, his governorship is the credential that allows him entry as a contender. But that only gets him on the stage and covered by journalists. 

It’s charm and magnetism that attracts fealty from humans. Not a budget surplus and the signing SB2109.