Three more pertinent elements that will determine whether Ron can dethrone Don.
Good analysis, David. Twitter is relevant for policy wonks, and it's entirely possible Twitter under Elon Musk will become the "Fox News" of social media. But at least for now, Twitter isn't where most votes are generated in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Republican voters (particularly caucus-goers, which is important in Iowa) skew older and rural. It's stupid to think older and rural people don't use social media -- that's just not true -- but it is true that those who are on social media are more likely to be active Facebookers to keep up with family and friends than they are likely to be on Twitter. That could change and there is definitely a market for a Facebook alternative, but Truth Social didn't take off with that market niche and Twitter isn't yet reaching it, either.
DeSantis is the GOP Al Gore. He’s over staffed, inauthentic and unrelatable, for the most part. It’s why aides hide DeSantis from voters or any interactions with “normies.” Also, at least Gore was a quality public speaker.
good analysis re: how reporting and nature of permanent news cycle 'really work'.... unless DeSantis campaign perpetuates Twitter error with additional miscues -- and a newsworthy pattern/narrative established -- this misstep will quickly be water under the bridge.