2 weeks out: The Polling Scorecard
Clip 'n save where the races are as we slide into the mindless homestretch.
Two weeks from Election Day, here’s a handy summary of where the polling stands in the top U.S. Senate and Governors races. These averages are based on the last three public polls taken in each race in October. Notably, they are not an average of all polls, because I feel like earlier surveys taken through the summer and even inside of September are stale and crusty now that the contests have calcified and voting has begun.
Clip ‘n save these charts to place your bets and compare where the horseraces end up on Election Night, or in the days after. This is also an exercise to see where the polling misses hardest, because we know that will happen somewhere; just hopefully for the sake of our business, not everywhere.
A few takeaways from the Senate scorecard: Three races are under 2 points with Tim Ryan looking like he has as good a chance at becoming a senator as Catherine Cortez Masto has at returning as one (I know, data blows minds!), Mark Kelly in Arizona is essentially in the same position as John Fetterman in Pennsylvania (ahead, but by a thread) and the Colorado Senate race doesn’t look remotely competitive if you believe the data more than you heart Joe O’Dea. (Yes, I know many of you will object to the data.)
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On the Governors Scorecard: Arizona remains the hottest race in the country with Kari Lake holding a slight edge, we’re flying blind in Kansas without any surveys taken since September, a Democrat (WTF) could possibly be the next governor of Oklahoma, and I’m wondering which southern red state power GOV will achieve a higher margin for 2024 bragging rights: Brian Kemp or Ron DeSantis? Don’t think they won’t care.