Turnout 'is not where we want it to be'
Happy 🍑 E-Day ... but be careful with those exits.👋
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🚨 Charlie Kirk, the MAGA diehard and founder of Turning Point USA, a key GOP GOTV field operator, sends a mid-Election Day flare 🚩lamenting turnout is “not where we want it to be.”
Careful with those EXIT POLLS … The exit poll surveys that TV networks will lean on to formulate their initial expectations for the evening ahead *will not include* the opinions and demography of the 80 MILLION Americans who cast early ballots.
Megyn Kelly on the 2016 exits:
“I will never forget at 5 o’clock in that meeting with Fox News In 2016, Arnon Mishkin said, ‘It’s going to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton.’ All the data they had gotten so far was super pro-Hillary.’”
🫡 The EARLIEST county to watch for a beat: BALDWIN County, GEORGIA, where polls close at 7PM EST. It was Biden +1.2% in 2020.
“If Trump breaks through in Baldwin County, it would be a sign that Harris is perhaps underperforming among younger Black voters and younger voters,” Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman told Derek Thompson.
But Democrats are feeling bullish 🐂 about early signs in GEORGIA, based on a robust Election Day vote.
The Peach State’s turnout now seems likely to blow past 2020’s turnout of 4.9 million. Now observers believe the Election Day rush could push Georgia’s total to 5.2 to 5.3 MILLION voters.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says the the bulk of the early results — 4 million ballots — will be tabulated in the 8 PM hour, likely making Georgia the first battleground state to put substantial results up on the board.
Georgia’s 2020 margin: 0.2% … 11,779 votes.
Turnout in Philadelphia was estimated to be around 86% of 2020 turnout by 12:30 EST, an uplifting sign for Harris if the pattern holds for the rest of the day.
But if this is in the ballpark of 2020 margins, we’re going to be waiting awhile, although not probably as long as the Covid-era election.
The earliest Associated Press battleground state call in 2020 was made for … ARIZONA at 2:51 AM the morning after Election Day. Wisconsin and Michigan came the following Wednesday afternoon and evening. Georgia wasn’t called until November 13, 2020.
***If you’re a new subscriber, thanks for joining me over the last month. The nightly dispatches have been fun and invigorating but are also a timely detour away from my day-job responsibilities. I’ll be posting at least once a day until we have a presidential winner and then hope to take some time with some longer lens thoughts and analysis when we’re out of the dust.***
