The wild card of RFK
8 observations on the strongest third party threat in more than 30 years.
The top lines of horserace polls in battleground states aren’t particularly useful yet, since nearly all reflect low single-digit margins that can *and will* easily turn and churn over the next seven months. (Being up 44%-42% or 47%-44% anywhere should lend neither Biden nor Trump solace.) What’s relevant sits in the crosstabs of demographic breakdowns, which reveal why President Biden is a springtime underdog.
A significant number of Black voters are shunning Biden, which is producing a narrow lead for Donald Trump in Michigan, a must-win state to facilitate the president’s path to 270 electoral votes. Biden’s 2-point deficit to Trump (measured by Mitchell Research in mid-March) is born out of Trump’s securement of 27% of the African American vote in a 5-way trial, including third-party candidates. Exit polls estimate Trump received just 8% to 12% of Michigan’s African-American vote in 2020. That means Trump is more than doubling his share of Michigan’s Black voters right now, if this text + web-based survey is on the mark.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is showing to be a true wild card in Michigan.
He’s polling 6% in the battleground, per Mitchell Research — (a CNN survey out last week measured him at 18%, which would be an astounding pull) but more intriguingly in Mitchell Research,