The most important number in Iowa

A deadeye assessment 30 days from the caucus.

Over the summer as I was mining the depths of the Ron DeSantis presidential campaign apparatus, a high-level strategist told me the most important number in the Iowa caucuses would be the percentage of the third place finisher.

In order for a chance to shave the race down to a mano y mano duality with Donald Trump, the second place candidate in the Jan. 15 caucus would need maximum separation from the next trailing rival. A strong third place candidate finishing on the tail of No. 2 would disincentivize consolidation, muddle the media narrative and further bisect the anti-Trump vote.

Three tickets out of Iowa is one too many if the 2024 Republican nominee is going to be someone who hasn’t yet been president. The non-Trump contender must rise in the caucus like Iowa corn in early August.

Yet we stand a month from caucus day and the battle to become Trump’s last alternative standing is