The House Democrats' Walking Dead
Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections tells us how bad it looks for Nancy Pelosi and friends just over 3 months from Election Day.
The House is gone.
That’s the widely held assumption of almost every breathing nonpartisan political analyst.
This is what’s supposed to happen, after all.
Some quick facts to consider:
Of the 40 midterm elections held since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost ground in 37.
Since 1946, the average midterm loss of the party in power is 28 House seats.
President Biden would be the 5th consecutive POTUS to lose both chambers of Congress if the House and Senate go Republican.
So again, the bigger story would be if somehow Democrats maintained House control.
Republicans need to flip just 4 seats to claim a majority, which should be a slice of cheesecake in this rancorous midterm year for Democrats.
Which Democratic incumbents are most likely to fall
Which state to watch to see if Republicans approach RED WAVE territory
And which scenario is more likely, a monster GOP gain of 30 seats or a modest addition of 12.
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