No debate bump.
"Only consequential presidents get shot at"
Seven weeks from tonight, vote counting of Election 2024 will be underway.
Here are XX unadulterated observations of the state of the presidential race with 49 nights left, including Harris’ overlooked interview, mixed signals in Pennsylvania and Dems who want Harris to go local.
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Kamala Harris has not received an appreciable bump in battleground state polls a week after a debate in which the press and public overwhelmingly declared her the victor. Be careful not to confuse her slight gains in national polls, in which she’s enjoyed a boost of .07% over that same period, according to a summation. Her national bump is likely coming from blue states, where an increase in voteshare will not help her net 270 electoral votes, but will bolster her national popular vote total. Do recall that in 2016 Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%. That scenario rests heavy on the minds of Democrats. Watch the Tok.
A 48-48 tie in Michigan is how Mitchell Research found the race in a survey of 580 likely voters the day after the debate. Mitchell Research is rated 2.4 out of 3 stars by 538 — branding it with an average rating. But it’s the only relevant survey of the state we’ve seen.
There’s a Pennsylvania caveat in my theory. Suffolk dropped a poll of the most paramount battleground state on Monday and found Harris up 3, 49%-46%, which would be an extraordinary place for her to be. But the
