Is Trump's momentum in the wrong places?
Plus: A vibes check with a Dem lobbyist 👔 ... + a walk thru the Blue Wall.
Where were you Friday morning when The New York Times dropped its star-spangled poll showing the 2024 presidential race tied nationally with 11 days to go?
If you’re a Democrat, there’s a chance your delicate nerves were already frayed and the early morning alert sent your blood pressure simmering to an unhealthy boil. By now you’re numb to the jolt and have ~hopefully~ cut the stress with an evening negroni.
If you’re a Republican, more precisely a Trumpster, the toplines might’ve tempted you to begin thinking of where and how you’ll choose to celebrate on Nov. 5, or more likely the early hours of Nov. 6. Think Stephen Miller toasting Kash Patel under gold-rimmed crystal chandeliers at Mar-a-Lago.
A national popular vote tie in an A+ rated poll cannot be spun as anything near good news for Kamala Harris. It’s no outlier either — the Wall Street Journal similarly tracked Trump moving into a 2-point advantage nationally this week. If you needed a reminder, Joe Biden won the sum of the country by 4.5% in 2020; even in Electoral College defeat, Hillary Clinton carried the total vote by just over 2% in 2016.
But beyond the fury of tweets, a closer gander of the data conveys that the original operating theory that Harris has to carry the popular vote by as much as Biden to squeeze out an Electoral College win looks flawed.
The VEEP remains in *dead even heats* in the Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as she has been for much of October. The degradation of her support looks like it’s coming from Donald Trump’s improvement in noncompetitive states that won’t factor into the final outcome.