"I had to confuse my constituents"

The death of the competitive congressional district, examined.

I wrote a piece specifically designed for the Lexington Herald Leader — one of McClatchy’s 30 newspaper properties — that examines why a once competitive congressional district in heart of the state has fallen off the battleground map.

The example of Rep. Andy Barr’s district helps explain a national trend of congressional districts becoming less competitive.

As always, I’d love if you gave the entire piece a thorough read.

But I’ll highlight some of bigger takeaways below, because I like that you’re here.

I. The data:

A New York Times analysis found that nearly 90% of the next U.S. House could be occupied by members who face nearly zero threat of losing a general election. Inside Elections, another outlet that provides nonpartisan analysis of House races, deems only 15 races as true toss-ups in the 2022 cycle.

II. The reasoning:

It ain’t gerrymandering alone. In fact, most experts I spoke to weighed partisan realignment as a much stronger factor that contributes to lop-sided margins for both parties. Yes, the district lines matter — which is why Democrats fought so hard against GOP redistricting efforts this year. But the nationalization of politics, with nearly every race becoming a referendum on Trump or Pelosi or pick your villain — is the prime driver.

You now have a greater chance of predicting how someone will vote based on basic factors like what neighborhood they live in, how much education they hold, their age and gender. (If they use pronouns, odds are they aren’t pulling an R ballot; It they’re logging into Breitbart.com several times a day, they probably aren’t going D.)

Partisan media consumption, as you’ll see below, is also obviously a driving force that is only getting more divisively potent in these races.

Plus, most people devote less time to getting to know their individual congressperson. Senators are way sexier in this respect.

So characteristics mean more than individual candidates in most House races. That’s what allows for WAVES you hear so much about. Ornery voters just wanted to get rid of the party in power because they’re pissed at gas prices or war or tweets. They aren’t sitting down doing side-by-side candidate reviews.

III. The money quote:

Ben Chandler, a moderate Democrat who last held Andy Barr’s seat in Lexington, Kentucky a decade ago, was generous in fielding my questions for this piece. Being out of office also allowed him more candor about how difficult it became to position himself as a moderate.

This quote from Chandler is the one which raised most eyebrows about running in Kentucky as a D >

“I had to confuse my constituents so they couldn’t tell whether I was a liberal or a conservative or a moderate,” he said, noting that endeavor became more difficult as data showed him that an increasing amount of his constituents were primarily depending on conservative media outlets like Fox News, which blared narratives that tarred his entire party with the same broad brush. “When that’s the case and you’re a Democrat, you clearly are looking at a hell of an uphill battle.”

IV. History & The 2022 Calculus:

If Republicans don’t take the House, with some ease in November, something dramatic and nearly out-of-this world, will have had to happened over the next seven months. That’s not a 0% chance. It’s just well under 50%.

Republicans need to gain just 5 seats to win control over the lower chamber.

Their campaign arm recently announced they’re now targeting 72 seats. That’s a bit of a head fake, of course. They won’t flip 72.

In 2014, the last significantly favorable midterm environment for the GOP, the party added 13 seats to its majority. In 2010, the biggest GOP midterm year in modern history, Republicans netted 63 seats. That’s a gargantuan amount of gains. But that number is also likely well out of bounds for them this year, simply because they are much closer to the majority than they were coming in to 2010.

Going back to Harry Truman’s presidency, the president's party has lost, on average, 29 House seats in each president’s first midterm election.

Right now, the sweet spot betting for total GOP House gains in 2022 is somewhere between 30 and 40 seats.

Correction: An earlier version mistakenly suggested Democrats would retake the House. Of course, I meant Republicans.