How This Year's Most Consequential Primaries Are Shaping The Fall of 2022
Pour one out for your vintage Bush-Cheney signs. And keep an eye on Brian Kemp.
When I launched Too Close To Call on New Year’s Day 2022, my first piece ordered the five most consequential primaries of the year.
Those primaries were:
5. Texas Republican attorney general nomination
4. Pennsylvania Democratic U.S. Senate nomination
3. Alaska U.S. Senate open primary
2. Georgia Republican governor nomination
1. Wyoming Republican U.S. House nomination
With the bulk of primary season now complete — only the northeastern quadrant of Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island remain — let’s take a moment to review the broader impact of each race on the 2022 cycle and where they stand in the general election.
5. Texas Attorney General GOP primary victor: Ken Paxton
This down-ballot race in the nation’s second largest state was only significant in that it contributed to definitively capping the Bush era, as George P., the 45-year-old telegenic son of Jeb, lost resoundingly to the scandal-plagued Paxton by 36 points in their head-to-head face-off.
Paxton, who challenged the 2020 election results in several states, had Donald Trump’s backing early. Despite being dogged by an indictment and a federal corruption investigation, Paxton stamped out what was left of the Bush legacy.
The General Election: A Dallas Morning News poll showed Paxton ahead of Democratic challenger Rochelle Garza by only 2 points — 34% to 32%, but Texas Democrats have been teased by tight numbers before. In order for Garza to upset Paxton, she’ll likely need a assist from Beto O’Rourke who trails at the top of the ticket in the gubernatorial race. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, a statistic that will likely be broken in the next decade, but not 2022.
4. Pennsylvania Democratic U.S. Senate primary victor: John Fetterman
The primary once billed as a “beauty vs. the beast” blockbuster between John Fetterman and Conor Lamb petered out with the whimper of a gentle, predetermined slaughter.
Read: ‘One of the worst campaigns I’ve ever seen run’
Fetterman cruised by a 32-point margin, with the suspense and drama ending up on the Republican side of the ballot. The 52-year-old Fetterman experienced a life-threatening stroke that he’s still visibly recovering from. (His speech remains disjointed and isn’t without reason for concern.) It’s taken Fetterman off the trail and limited his public exposure to this day, but it hasn’t slowed his march to the Senate so far.
Listen: Fetterman’s personal health vs. Oz’s political prognosis
Fetterman remains the giant candidate for Democrats of the cycle, carving out a consistent and durable lead against a bruised Mehmet Oz, who is struggling to shed his outsider celebrity image and getting pummeled online, which has rendered him an easy punchline for political punchbowl conversations.
The General Election: Republicans argue that Oz has slowly crawled back into the game and see an opening on Fetterman’s impairment. Still, it would now be a surprise if Fetterman did not defeat Oz this November in the nation’s largest true battleground state. And a Pennsylvania pick-up would hand Senate Democrats a slim pad if one of their other incumbents falters in Nevada or Arizona.
3. Alaska U.S. Senate open primary victor: Lisa Murkowski
Whereas Trump’s brute force has largely determined the fate of his foes in Republican primaries this cycle, Lisa Murkowski is testing his reach in the uppermost terrain.
Despite Trump’s wrath, the incumbent collected the most votes in Alaska’s new “top four” open primary system — where the top four finishers advance to a ranked choice vote in November. Murkowski finished 9,486 votes ahead of the Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka, but as she told reporters on primary day, "what matters is winning in November."
The General Election: With ranked choice voting in place in November, Murkowski looks like a favorite to stave off Tshibaka. The key will be Murkowski’s ability to be the 2nd choice of Democrats supporting third place finisher Patricia Chesbro, who netted three times more votes than the fourth place Republican candidate, whose voters would be more inclined to rank Tshibaka second. Follow me? In simpler form: Democrats may just come to the rescue of Murkowski to prevent a Trump-stamped U.S. senator.
2. Georgia Republican governor nomination victor: Brian Kemp
There was no more embarrassing defeat for Trump this primary season than Brian Kemp’s 52-point butchery of David Perdue in May. Trump went all in, campaigning in person, cutting TV ads and spending more than $3 million to try and oust a man he feels betrayed him for not embracing his conspiracy that the 2020 election was stolen.
It amounted to a colossal bellyflop.
Gubernatorial contests have proven tougher for Trump to dominate — and nothing in politics is a more difficult feat than dethroning a sitting governor in a primary. Team Kemp’s shrewd, no mercy approach to subverting Perdue’s natural backers, as my pal Alex Isenstadt uncovered, could eventually prove attractive to Republicans far beyond Georgia.
The General Election: The overwhelming primary win against Trump makes Kemp look like an even more formidable ringer in his re-match against Stacey Abrams. He’s holding a steady 6-point advantage over Abrams as the contest curves into the fall.
1. Wyoming Republican U.S. House nomination: Harriet Hageman
Liz Cheney lost, but she’s not done yet! You’ve probably heard this by now, as it was repeatedly professed in an onslaught of national media coverage around the August race that dedicated far more ink to the loser and her nobility than to Hageman.
Given the lopsided defeat of Cheney, you, yes, you might’ve been able to knock her off. Just as Kemp established himself as the preeminent example of Trump defiance, Cheney became the ultimate avatar of his most brutal vengeance. It’s fitting that a Bush in Texas and Cheney in Wyoming were both extinguished in the midterm year in which Trump put his broadest stamp on a forever-altered GOP.
The General Election: This was never about the general. Hageman will be a congresswoman soon. What’s more intriguing is how Cheney will spend her remaining months before exiting Congress in January. Will she campaign for (the few) non-Trump candidates with a shot at victory (see above: Murkowski, ahem)? Will she titillate our narrative g-spot by dropping into Iowa and New Hampshire? Will she consider shedding her party label to pursue an independent presidential bid? The waterfall of yet-to-be-written Liz Cheney chronicles are boundless.