Don't let New Hampshire fool you
How the Republican primary could close out this week.
Come Wednesday morning Nikki Haley will in all likelihood begin to confront the same wrenching decision Ron DeSantis toiled through last week — how long to remain in the 2024 presidential nominating contest and whether it is worth making a last stand in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary four weeks and five days from today.
The margin of Tuesday’s New Hampshire vote will be the strongest factor in Haley’s calculation. Does she surprise, creeping within low single-digits of The Donald or does she take the lumping that most polling is forecasting, falling by 15 points or more in the one-on-one race she craved?
Here are 7 reasons to believe the 2024 GOP nomination contest is cooked just 22 days into 2024 — even if Haley comes closer to Trump than most expect Tuesday night.
New Hampshire is Haley’s version of DeSantis’ Iowa: All in, with heavy resources, credible endorsements (Gov. Sununu, Don Bolduc) and a favorable electorate (upper-income centrists galore!) that best fits her profile. She even came close to matching Trump on broadcast TV over the final week, landing 46% of the political airtime to Trump’s 54%. If it doesn’t work here, where would it?
Haley’s problem isn’t her ability to court nonpartisans into her camp.