🫏 Dems start to smell 👃an edge
You know what the Midwest is? Young and restless.
Good first night of 🍗 NOVEMBER — the final weekend before Election Day 🗳️, which arrives in … under 80 hours. ⏲️
Kamala Harris is doing three Friday stops in WISCONSIN — potentially the toughest BLUE WALL state for her to seal; Donald Trump begins in MICHIGAN — likely his toughest state to recover — before meeting Harris in WISCONSIN to end the night.
🔵 BLUELINE TOPLINE 🔵 »»» The mood among Democrats is beginning to cautiously brighten based on a combination of the yawning gender gap in the early vote, a final batch of slightly better Blue Wall state polling and a calculation that a significant portion of young and minority voters are waiting to show up on Election Day to counter the Republican ballot rush.
Democrats also believe they are winning late-deciding voters in battleground states by as much as double-digits, in part due to the backlash over Trump’s mega-rally at Madison Square Garden that was defined by a denigration of Puerto Ricans.
🎯 Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, held a briefing on Friday to unveil some trendlines that may ease if not erase Democratic nerves. Bonier highlights:
Since Harris entered the race on July 21, 2024, new Democratic registrations have outpaced new Republican registrations *by 16%* in the seven battleground states. (PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, AZ, NV).
In North Carolina, new female registrants outpace males by 7%.
In Georgia, it’s a 9% gap for women among new registrants in the past three months.
But remember, Harris doesn’t NEED North Carolina, Georgia or even Arizona if she keeps the Blue Wall intact, her most plausible path to 270 EVs.
Around the Wall we go,
➡️ PENNSYLVANIA:
Final Washington Post Poll, 1,204 likely voters: Harris 48% Trump 47%
*Shows Harris exceeding Biden’s % of white voters, while she sheds Black support*
Early vote partisan ballot edge: D+ 394,056 LINK to PA data guru