5 months from right now
A Biden V Trump scouting report.
Five months ~or~ 22 weeks … from right about *now* (if you’re a timely email opener), polls in Pennsylvania — the country’s largest battleground state — will be closing and the great Blue America freak-out will commence.
Donald Trump will build an early double-digit lead that looks deceivingly invincible because of the commonwealth’s vote canvassing procedures which counts Election Day ballots first and saves mail-ins for later tabulation.
It could well be another re-run in a cycle of sameness.
What’s different right now is that Trump, as the challenger, is running as the marginal favorite against Biden, the incumbent. Did the conviction change anything? Where’s jockeying for Trump’s VP stand? And is Biden as weak as the narrative is telling us?
Here’s a 5-month out scouting report to mark the advent of campaign summer.
Who’s winning?
PA: Trump +2 MI: Trump +1 WI: Trump +1
AZ: Trump +5 GA: Trump +5
NV: Trump +6 (!)*
Trump’s ahead, but his leads in the three Blue Wall states Biden needs to secure re-election are tiny, well within the margin of error and surmountable. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Repeat those three. That’s the war zone to get to 270. Arizona and Georgia are gravy states for Democrats. Notably, Biden’s standing in PA/MI + WI have improved slightly since the beginning of the year.
Woah, what’s with that Nevada number?
A New York Times/Siena poll showing Trump with a 14-point lead *skewed the recent average there. That is a wild outlier that should be trashed. But other, more recent surveys of the state show Trump up 3 to 8 points, which would still mark a significant shift towards MAGA in Nevada. What’s clear is that Nevada will be a bated breath state for Democrats on E-night. If Trump is able to swipe Nevada from the blue column, it’s unlikely there’s a way for Biden to reach 270 electoral votes. Meaning Nevada could prove to be the ultimate spoiler or savior for Democrats. Here’s a hypothetical map, courtesy of DecisionDeskHQ, showing what happens if Biden drops Pennsylvania and Nevada, even while holding on to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Did Trump’s conviction move the race at all?
Not much. Polls in the field since Trump’s May 30 conviction have shown marginal — but likely statistically insignificant — movement toward Biden.
Since we’re not even a week since the conviction, this is something that we’ll need to revisit for consistency. Does Biden retain a slim national lead against Trump three weeks from now? Or does the race as coverage of Trump’s conviction recedes. Remember those battleground state polls — PA/MI/WI — mean a helluva lot more than any national survey. A Michigan poll out Wednesday (MIRS) had Biden inching up into a tie. But some early data finds that voters who dislike both Trump and Biden think Trump is guilty and the trial was fair but it will have minimal impact on their ultimate vote.