15 observations on the '24 Republican primary
Dumping out the notebook as Iowa approach-eth.
The 2024 presidential campaign is opening as the least exciting/inspiring/interesting White House race since … 1996, even as the dynamics driving it are unprecedented and the consequences of the result could be existential to domestic and global affairs.
The most significant development between now and the Iowa caucuses will not be Wednesday night’s Ron DeSantis-Nikki Haley debate on CNN — but the release of Ann Selzer’s final Iowa poll, traditionally dropped on Saturday night.
Though Selzer’s poll is highly regarded and will undoubtedly set the expectations for Donald Trump’s margin of victory and the race for 2nd place, please recall that it was slightly off in its 2016 GOP projection. Selzer’s final read in Jan. 2016 had Trump in first place with 28% followed by Ted Cruz with 23% and Marco Rubio with 15%. The actual result was Cruz winning the caucuses with 28% to Trump’s 24% and Rubio’s 23%.
It is difficult to locate a DeSantis staffer/ally/backer who is truly bullish about his Iowa prospects. A “win” has been downgraded to simply finishing ahead of Haley, with no real public facing plan for what’s next. “I kind of like lower expectations,” the Florida governor said during a Fox News townhall Tuesday night.
The DeSantis campaign regularly touts 30,000 Iowans committed to caucus for him. But in 2016, it took 50,000 to win. 30,000 caucus votes would’ve been good enough for 4th place in 2016, though GOP turnout is expected to be lower this time.
The biggest advertiser in Iowa has been Haley’s super PAC. Pro-Haley spending has eclipsed $31 million in expenditures, even tracking ahead of pro-DeSantis totals, according to AdImpact, a tracking firm.
There’s a slightly greater than 50% chance that DeSantis suspends his campaign following the caucuses sometime ahead of New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary. This occurs if his second place percentage drastically underwhelms or he finishes behind Haley.
FWIW, Bard, Google’s AI tells me that the New Hampshire primary has already occurred — and that Trump has won it.
If DeSantis competes in the New Hampshire primary, he is likely to